U.S. business expectations for trade fell for a second month in March according to the latest ISM survey. Export expectations fell to 46.6 (50 indicates a neutral outlook) from 51.2 a month earlier. More concerningly, the import order expectation result fell to 42.1 from 42.6. That was the lowest level since at least 2010 and may be a sign of the “bullwhip” effect of lower demand in the U.S. meeting recovering exports from China. The transportation sector has raised particular concerns in the ISM survey with COVID-19 “affecting our purchasing and logistics operations...
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